THIS ISSUE:
The TikTok Shop Cold Start
What your clients need to know
Have you ever seen a TikTok shop that was profitable in its first 3 months?
I doubt it……
But do your clients share the same opinion?
Say this before the client asks.
BEST LINKS
📈 Growth
A cold start in April grew to $10k+ in daily sales and 500+ orders. Useful evidence for the conversation about how much runway a new client needs. (Vitalii Khyzhniak)
An agency put $90,000 behind creator videos that had already sold product and reported $340,000 back. Find the videos that sell before committing the client’s ad budget. (Haseef Bashir)
💰 Margin
Selling became harder once the agency founder also had to deliver the work. Qualify clients against your team’s capacity before filling the pipeline. (Mica te Slaa)
A 6-month rebuild took a brand’s reported profit per order from $3-$4 to $15-$20. Audit shipping defaults before spending more to scale the account. (Syed Najiullah Shah)
🗞️ TikTok Shop news
GMV Max Pro brings affiliate costs, coupons and platform commissions into the picture. Check which features your client accounts can access before changing targets. (Vitalii Khyzhniak)
GMV Max separates creative testing from performance labels such as Outstanding and Underperforming. Check whether a video was actually tested before blaming the creative. (Syed Sibte Hassan)
DEEP DIVE
THE COLD START IS BRUTAL
I've yet to meet a single TikTok Shop that was profitable in its first three months.
I say that to every client. They don't like hearing it….. but it's true.
I went back through years of my own client emails, Slack and calls (over 100k messages) to understand the biggest client issues.
What it said:
"I'm not even sure what it is that you guys handle for me."
"I was under the impression you guys handled everything from day one."
"So, I need an overall plan."
That's a confused client….. Every brand knows other brands that went viral on TikTok, they expect the same.
Which changes it completely. They don't need a better timeline. They need to see activity.
Here's how it works:
DEEP DIVE
TELL THE CLIENT THE UGLY TRUTH
before it happens
Two things happen in month one that make you feel like a failure:
Terrible content comes back
No brand owner is ever happy with the 1st round of content.
The only creators who'll touch a shop with no sales history are the ones that create terrible content.
You have to start at the bottom….. you have to start with the worst affiliates, you have to kiss a few toads 🐸.
Samples go out and crickets
Nothing comes back for about two weeks.
You nag affiliates, but they don’t understand what a ‘deadline’ is
You have to wait for the content
To meet their expectations I say the following…..
Steal this:
"The way we work is methodical, and it works, but it can be slow. Right now we're building the foundation of your shop.
Weeks one and two are going to look empty. Content takes about two weeks to come back.
From a cold start you don't get established creators. You get newer, smaller ones. Turning a volume of small creators into your first winners is the part we're genuinely good at, and those first winners are what make the bigger creators say yes later."
DEEP DIVE
HAND THEM THE MATHS
Never a forecast
I was on a call with a client…...
234 samples shipped in 28 days. Two sales.
It sounded terrible……. but it was actually a good sign.
Here's why:
100 samples buys you 4 to 5 affiliates worth keeping.
That's the average, not the bad case.
So 234 samples out and 2 sales in isn't a disaster. It's roughly on pace.
Because you analyse the top 4 or 5 affiliate videos (views, engagement, sales, etc) and then you go and do another 100.
One real week, one account:
3,202 creators reached
68 collab invites sent
7 accepted
55 sample requests
11 approved
4 videos posted
1 driving sales
That isn't a broken funnel. That is the funnel.
Samples aren't marketing spend. They're the cost of buying content and data.
Samples are a cost like PPC is on Amazon…… necessary, not optional.
It's a data buy, not a revenue month. Price it that way and say so out loud.
Which is also why I won't put GMV numbers on paper in month one. Run month one, look at the actuals, model months two and three off that.
I tell the clients this (steal it):
"I'm deliberately not putting GMV numbers on paper. TikTok Shop is a wild marketplace and forward predictions don't hold up cleanly here.
The right move is to run month one, look at the data, then model month two and month three off actuals. Anything else is a guess dressed up as a forecast."
And if the client still wants a number to choose from, give them a choice of effort instead of a promise of outcome. Three named intensity levels:
Low ($), Normal ($$), Aggressive ($$$). The only things that change between them are sample volume and the ad ceiling. Commission stays fixed. No GMV figure anywhere on the page.
DEEP DIVE
BUT IF THEY WANT RESULTS SOONER
It will cost them
I tell every brand this:
You cannot ‘force’ a sale on TikTok Shop…. unless you pay for it
TikTok is slow, it can be sped up… but it will cost the brand.
Every new brand needs 30 sales to get out of the probation period.
But what if those buyers created content for you?
This is exactly what JoinBrands, Insense and Billo do.
However, each purchase will cost you between $50-$100 as you need to pay the creator and their purchasing costs.
Which leaves brands to decide on the following:
Pay $2,250 ($75 × 30)
Expensive, but gets you off the starting blocks
OR
Wait for 30 sales
Cheaper option…. but could take weeks/months
Brands want results…… how badly do they want them?
Steal this:
"We can obtain more outreach and Shop benefits when we have 30 sales.
We can either pay $2,000+ or wait weeks for those orders"
THAT'S A WRAP
What did you think of today's newsletter?
Until next time,
- Paul 👊
PS. Any thoughts, let us know….. I read every reply